AGP Executive Report

Environmental levies: Kazakhstan collected 4.2 trillion tenge in environmental taxes in 2025, up 12.2% year on year and 3.7 times the 2016 total. Caspian at risk: Leaders of the five Caspian states are due to meet in Avaza on Oct. 9 as the sea continues to retreat. Kazakhstan’s monitoring shows a 1.76-metre fall in water level from 2005 to 2022 and a loss of more than 26,000 square kilometres of surface area. Water cooperation: Central Asian states agreed on river-water allocations and reservoir operations for the 2026–27 non-growing season, while officials called for stronger climate-resilient management of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Restoration and climate policy: Kazakhstan says the North Aral’s area has grown 36% in 20 years; plans include rebuilding the Kokaral Dam and expanding saxaul planting on the dried seabed. Astana and the OECD are also mapping cooperation on climate adaptation, emissions policy, recycling and Caspian monitoring.

Environmental Taxes: Kazakhstan collected 4.2 trillion tenge in environmental taxes in 2025, up 12.2% year on year. Climate Policy: Kazakhstan and the OECD are mapping cooperation on emissions pricing, climate adaptation and a circular economy, including waste recycling and Caspian Sea challenges. Caspian Sea: A new island off Kazakhstan’s coast highlights a decline of nearly 2.5 metres in the country’s Caspian waters over about three decades. Kazakhstan is preparing an interstate conservation program, while a Japan-funded project will support sea monitoring; regional leaders are due to discuss the crisis at an October 9 summit. Water Security: Central Asian states agreed on reservoir operations and water distribution for the 2026–27 non-growing season, and outlined steps to strengthen cooperation on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Aral Recovery: The North Aral Sea has grown 36% in area over 20 years. A planned Kokaral Dam upgrade aims to raise water levels and expand the sea further. Wildlife: Two Przewalski’s horse foals, Botai and Tumar, were born in Kazakhstan as conservationists work to restore the species.

Caspian Sea in Retreat: A new island has emerged near Kazakhstan’s coast as the sea level falls. The Kazakh sector has dropped about 2.5 metres in three decades, shrinking the surveyed northeastern waters by more than 16,000 square kilometres. The retreat threatens seals, wetlands, fisheries and coastal infrastructure. Regional Response: Kazakhstan is developing an interstate program with a focus on water-level decline, biodiversity, pollution and monitoring, alongside UN-backed coastal projects and plans for a Caspian research institute. Tokayev is in Turkmenistan for a summit that includes a Caspian environmental meeting. Japan has also committed $3 million to sea monitoring. Water and Land: A Kyrgyzstan-led project will restore at least 264 hectares in the Syr Darya basin, where glacier loss and changing river flows pose risks to downstream water supplies, including Kazakhstan’s. Wildlife: Two Przewalski’s horse foals have been born in Kazakhstan as conservationists work to rebuild the wild population.

Caspian Sea Protection: Kazakhstan is building an interstate program with UNDP and partners to slow the Caspian Sea’s decline, protect biodiversity and seals, cut plastic pollution, and upgrade environmental monitoring, including plans for a dedicated research institute. New Caspian Monitoring: Japan is funding a $3m Caspian Sea monitoring project in Kazakhstan, focusing on the shallow northern basin where habitats and shipping are already under pressure. Wildlife Conservation: Przewalski’s horses are returning to Kazakhstan’s steppe as two foals have been born at the Alibi reintroduction centre, part of efforts to rebuild the wild population after a 200-year absence. Climate & Water Stress: A regional assessment warns Central Asia’s water challenge is deepening as river flows drop, glaciers lose mass, and freshwater reserves fall below normal. Oil, Environment & Courts: An Atyrau court rejected a challenge to a massive environmental fine tied to the Kashagan offshore field, while Kazmunaigas moves to regain direct control of its Kashagan stake. Energy Market Context: OPEC+ kept November oil output targets unchanged despite Gulf disruptions, with Kazakhstan among the group—an energy backdrop that matters for emissions and pollution pressures.

Caspian Sea Monitoring: Japan is funding a $3M project with UNDP to track falling Caspian Sea levels, focusing on Kazakhstan’s shallow northern basin, where habitat loss for seals and sturgeon and growing port/shipping problems are already being felt. Biodiversity & Pollution Response: A high-level Aktau dialogue backed coordinated action on water balance shifts, marine litter, pollution, and biodiversity conservation, aiming to improve data sharing and water management. Air Quality in Schools: Astana School No. 101 was named a finalist for the 2027 Zayed Sustainability Prize for an AI-based classroom air-quality monitoring system using sensors to help schools respond early to poor indoor conditions. Reforestation Push: Pavlodar region is expanding forested areas under a 2021-2027 restoration plan, with millions of seedlings planted in recent years to support environmental stability. Public Health Alert: After a suspected plague-related death in Russia’s Irkutsk, Kazakhstan and neighbors tightened border sanitary and quarantine checks, reporting no symptomatic arrivals so far.

Reforestation Push: Pavlodar region has started its fall planting season under a 2021–2027 forest restoration plan, using pre-grown seedlings to expand forested areas and stabilize local natural resources. Public Health Watch: Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states tightened border sanitary and quarantine checks after a Russian lab worker’s death in Irkutsk sparked fears of plague, with officials reporting no high-temperature or suspicious cases so far. Nuclear Safety Context: Russia held a major emergency drill at the Beloyarsk nuclear plant, simulating simultaneous reactor accidents and a natural-disaster scenario to test evacuation and decontamination readiness. Energy & Environment Governance: Kazakhstan restarted enforcement to collect a $5.2bn Kashagan fine tied to alleged sulphur-storage violations, keeping environmental compliance disputes in the spotlight. Green Finance Signal: Bank CenterCredit improved its sustainability score in S&P’s assessment, citing stronger environmental and social risk management and a climate strategy. Air Cargo Growth: IATA reports Central Asia’s air cargo volumes have more than doubled since 2019, with Kazakhstan among the fastest-growing markets—an opportunity that also raises pressure on sustainable logistics.

Kashagan Fine Restart: Kazakhstan has resumed enforcement to collect a $5.22B (2.3 trillion tenge) sulphur-storage fine from the North Caspian Operating Company consortium, reigniting an environmental dispute tied to the Caspian Sea oilfield. Nuclear Expansion: The government is pushing new uranium site exploration under its 2050 nuclear industry strategy, with Kazatomprom tasked to expand geological work and mineral resources. Air Cargo Growth: IATA reports Central Asia’s air cargo volumes have more than doubled since 2019, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan leading growth and strengthening the region’s role in Europe–Asia logistics. AI in Industry: Kazakhstan’s industrial AI push is still stuck at pilots—58.8% of projects surveyed haven’t moved to full deployment—highlighting skills and integration costs as key barriers. Oil Market Stability: OPEC+ (including Kazakhstan) agreed to keep November output targets unchanged, maintaining September levels amid shipping and infrastructure risks. Water Security Lens: A new piece links declining water in Eurasia to investment and “capital liquidity,” stressing cooperation as water stress deepens across the Caspian and Central Asia.

Nuclear & Mining Policy: Kazakhstan’s government is pushing to explore new uranium sites, ordering geological work and directing agencies to expand the mineral resource base under the 2050 nuclear industry strategy. ESG & Climate Finance: Bank CenterCredit raised its S&P Global sustainability score to 78/100, citing stronger responsible financing, climate strategy work, and environmental and social risk management. Biodiversity Conservation: Przewalski’s horse reintroduction got a boost as the first foals born in Kazakhstan were named Botai and Tumar at the Alibi center in the Altyn Dala reserve. Wildlife Protection Tech: Kazakhstan is using drones to help protect rare wildlife at Kyzylsay Park, adding to efforts to monitor and safeguard threatened species. Water Security Lens: A new analysis links water stress to capital liquidity, arguing that declining water levels can reshape investment capacity across Eurasia. Regional Connectivity & Sustainability: UAE, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed an MoU to cooperate on the Central Asia–South Asia railway project, aiming to strengthen trade corridors and regional integration.

Biodiversity & Conservation: Kazakhstan marked a milestone in restoring endangered wildlife as the first Przewalski’s horse foals born in the country were named Botai and Tumar at the Alibi Reintroduction Center in the Altyn Dala State Nature Reserve, signaling adaptation and new breeding success. Water Security: A new Kazakhstan-focused discussion ties water scarcity to economic stability, arguing that declining water levels can squeeze investment and “capital liquidity” across Eurasia, with Central Asia’s shared basins at the center of the challenge. Industrial Environment Tech: NVIDIA is pitching “digital twins” and Physical AI to Kazakh mining and manufacturing to cut downtime and fuel use by simulating operations and catching costly design mistakes before construction. Climate & Regional Water Politics: Coverage also highlights how water cooperation in Central Asia is becoming a sustainability priority, while broader regional reporting points to geopolitical friction around major rivers. Wildlife Monitoring: Kazakhstan is using drones to protect rare wildlife at Kyzylsay Park, boosting on-the-ground conservation efforts.

Wildlife & Biodiversity: Kazakhstan’s first Przewalski’s horse foals born in the country have been named Botai and Tumar at the Alibi Reintroduction Center in the Altyn Dala State Nature Reserve, a sign the reintroduced herd is adapting and reproducing in Kazakhstan’s conditions. Archaeology & Climate Adaptation: New research at Kazakhstan’s cave sites in the Karatau range says ancient DNA and preserved sediments could help reconstruct how people lived and adapted to major climate swings long before bones survive. Energy & Water Stress for AI: Kazakhstan is building a major data center cluster in Ekibastuz, with plans to scale from about 50 MW toward 1 GW—raising urgent questions about electricity and water supply and the environmental pressures of rapid growth. Mining Footprint: Kazakhmys plans to shift copper ore extraction near Balkhash to underground methods, citing an environmental impact statement for the Sayak group deposits. Regional Connectivity: The UAE signed a MoU with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on the Central Asia–South Asia railway project, aiming to strengthen trade corridors and regional integration.

Wildlife & Trade: Falconry season is driving a surge in demand at Souq Waqif, with falcons priced from about QR2,500 to over QR100,000 and buyers including visitors from Kazakhstan—highlighting how regional wildlife markets can quickly intensify pressure on rare birds. Water & Climate Risk: A new report warns China’s Mekong approach is fueling geopolitical friction over shared rivers, while Kazakhstan-linked comparisons point to how upstream decisions can reshape downstream water security. Energy & Water Stress for AI: Kazakhstan’s Data Center Valley in Ekibastuz is set to start with ~50 MW and could expand to 1 GW, but the plan raises urgent questions about electricity and water supply and the environmental footprint of rapid AI-driven growth. Caspian Sea Impacts: Experts say the Caspian Sea’s falling level and faster shallowing could raise costs and threaten long-term viability of the Middle Corridor, with the northern coastline retreating up to 56 km over 20 years. Mining Footprint: Kazakhmys plans to shift copper extraction at the Sayak deposits in Karaganda region to underground methods, citing an environmental impact statement. Conservation Tech: Kazakhstan is using drones to protect rare wildlife at Kyzylsay Park.

AI & Energy-Water Stress: Kazakhstan’s Data Center Valley in Ekibastuz is set to start with ~50 MW and could scale to 1 GW, but the big question is whether power and water supply can keep up without new environmental pressure. Caspian Sea & Transport Risks: Experts warn the Caspian Sea’s falling level and faster shallowing could raise costs and threaten long-term sustainability of the Middle Corridor, with the northern coastline retreating up to 56 km since 2001. Mining Footprint Update: Kazakhmys plans to shift copper extraction at the Sayak deposits in Karaganda to fully underground methods, citing an environmental impact statement. Water & Climate Tech Support: The Eurasian Development Bank received ADFIAP awards, including an honorable mention for Kazakhstan’s National Water Resources Information System, supporting digital water management. Regional Cooperation with an Environmental Angle: Mongolia and Kazakhstan signed a protocol expanding work on the environment, climate change, green development, and disaster risk reduction alongside transport and logistics. Energy Sector Context: OPEC+ is likely to keep November oil output targets unchanged after delaying its 2027 capacity review, a move that can ripple into regional energy and emissions planning.

Underground Mining Shift: Kazakhmys plans to move copper extraction at the Sayak group deposits in Karaganda to fully underground methods, outlining the change in an environmental impact statement. Wildlife Protection with Tech: Mangystau’s Kyzylsay Nature Park is ramping up monitoring as visitor numbers rise, using drones and camera traps to protect Red List species and enforce rules on routes, fires, and litter. Water Data for Better Management: Kazakhstan commissioned the EDB-backed QazSu national water resources information system, built to digitalize monitoring and improve decision-making for water protection and sanitary/environmental oversight. Caspian Sea Risk to Transport: Experts warn that falling Caspian Sea levels and faster shallowing could raise costs and threaten long-term sustainability of the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor,” with the northern coastline retreating up to 56 km since 2001. Energy & Climate Tech Watch: China connected a large compressed carbon dioxide energy storage project to the grid, highlighting a zero-carbon storage approach that could influence regional power planning. Regional Connectivity Push: The World Bank launched a Middle Corridor “next stage” report, arguing coordinated investments and policy reforms could boost trade and resilience by 2040.

Water & Environment Tech: Kazakhstan commissioned the EDB-backed QazSu national water resources information system, with 15 digital modules to improve monitoring, decision-making, and protection of water resources, including sanitary and environmental oversight. Caspian Risk & Transport: A Kazakhstan TALAP Center director said the Middle Corridor has grown 15-fold in two years, but warned Caspian Sea shallowing (up to 56 km coastline retreat in the north over 20 years) could raise operating costs and threaten corridor sustainability. Regional Cooperation: The Mongolia–Kazakhstan intergovernmental commission met in Astana and signed a protocol covering transport, mining, agriculture, environment, climate change, green development, and disaster risk reduction, targeting $500m trade by 2025–2027. Accountability for Pollution: Kazakhstan resumed collection of a $5.2bn Kashagan environmental fine tied to sulfur exceeding limits, after court decisions denied NCOC’s challenges. Sustainable Development Finance: EDB received three ADFIAP awards; Kazakhstan’s water resources information system earned an honorable mention for technological development.

Renewables & Energy Security: Kazakhstan is pushing ahead with green power expansion, including new steps to move generation from Qaraqystaq toward sustainable development. AI Governance: President Tokayev told AI & Digital Bridge 2026 that technology must serve humanity and must not create new dividing lines, calling for open international research and talent cooperation. Caspian Environment & Enforcement: Kazakhstan resumed collection of a $5.2B environmental fine against NCOC over Kashagan sulfur-limit violations, ending a procedural pause after court review. Trade Logistics & Climate Risk: A World Bank report on the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor” says better integration could triple trade and cut travel times by 2040, while noting rising flood, drought and weather-shock risks. Regional Connectivity: The Middle Corridor’s next-stage forum in Georgia highlighted coordinated investments and reforms to make the route more efficient and sustainable. Kazakhstan–UAE Transport & Digital: Tokayev met UAE officials on Caspian transport/logistics, Middle Corridor projects, and AI cooperation for smart-city and traffic monitoring systems.

Trans-Caspian Corridor Boost: A new World Bank report says upgrading and integrating the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor could more than triple trade by 2040, cut travel times, raise GDP and create about 2 million jobs—while also factoring in flood and drought risks. Agriculture Tech & Trade: Kazakhstan and Germany agreed to deepen agricultural cooperation, with trade growth reported and plans to localize production and bring in modern German technologies, including possible EU market expansion. Industrial Digitalization & Monitoring: Tokayev’s Germany talks highlighted Siemens support for industrial modernization, electrification and smart infrastructure, including environmental monitoring and upgrades at the Qarmet metallurgical plant. Water-Saving Irrigation Training: Kazakhstan plans a Turkistan training center to help farmers shift to modern, water-saving irrigation, with pilot sites before scaling nationwide. Caspian Water Concern: Kazakhstan is taking preventive measures over declining Caspian Sea water levels, underscoring how climate and resource pressures are turning into policy priorities. Digital Fraud Crackdown: Kazakhstan shut down 20 fraud call centers operating from Ukraine, while reporting improved detection rates despite a dip in domestic internet fraud.